The Twitter Origins and Evolution of the COVID-19 "Plandemic" Conspiracy Theory

"Stopping the spread and influence of Plandemic - and related misinformation - is in the interest of the public's health."

Tweets about "plandemic" (e.g., #plandemic) - the notion that the COVID-19 pandemic was fake or planned - helped to spread several distinct conspiracy theories related to COVID-19. On May 4 2020, the first half of the 26-minute documentary Plandemic was released and rapidly spread via social media by leveraging the preexisting cynicism about COVID-19 that had been ramped up through the "plandemic" hashtag(s). Subsequently, anti-vaccine proponents used the film to sow discord, which risks increasing vaccine hesitancy and decreasing vaccination. This study analyses Twitter posts about the plandemic conspiracy theory as a case study of COVID-19 misinformation specifically, and social media misinformation in general. The researchers identify next steps for researchers, public health practitioners, and social media platforms.

In an effort to politicise and demonise public health figures combatting the pandemic, Plandemic leveraged underlying beliefs about COVID-19 and tapped into the sentiments of people who are disgruntled about the pandemic's impact on our freedoms and liberties (e.g., due to lockdowns). Specifically, the documentary made accusations of corruption among key experts in the United States (US)' pandemic response (e.g., Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the US National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Disease) and suggested broader collusion among politicians (e.g., former US president Barack Obama) and the global elite (e.g., Microsoft founder Bill Gates). By May 7 2020, the film was removed from YouTube because it contradicted World Health Organization (WHO) guidance, and nearly all other social media platforms subsequently blocked the film.

To study the impact of the conspiracy theory propagated on social media and through this film, the researchers collected 84,884 publicly accessible tweets mentioning "plandemic" between January 24 2020 (first mention on Twitter) and May 17 2020 (2 weeks after the film's online release). They analysed the content and popularity of tweets before and after the documentary's release.

This examination revealed that the average number of tweets per day mentioning "plandemic" increased more than 10-fold: from 612 pre-film to 10,657 post-film. However, Twitter discourse with this hashtag receded to observed pre-film levels within a 2-week post-film period. Despite an observed decrease in overall tweets about vaccination in the sample, vaccine-related tweets were retweeted and liked more following the documentary's release. Discourse about freedoms and liberties also increased after the film's release. In addition, the film increased attention towards certain political, public health, media organisations, and perceived elite public figures. Post-documentary tweets were particularly focused on personal attacks and vilifying specific public health experts.

The researchers suggest that these findings indicate the need for a pro-active, responsive, and multi-pronged effort to fight misinformation, specifically:

1. Preemptively address misinformation about the COVID-19 vaccine - "Primary prevention of misinformation's influence - pre-bunking rather than debunking - is necessary and may be accomplished through building literacy skills..." - e.g., through a game or viral video.
2. Conduct ongoing monitoring and surveillance of social media platforms for emerging conspiracy theories - Tools might include both automated and manually-controlled online dashboards - e.g., Project RCAID (Rapid Collection Analysis Interpretation and Dissemination) is an online misinformation dashboard created in 2020 through a nonprofit-private partnership (Public Good Projects and Zignal Labs) for tracking emerging coronavirus stories and narratives and new hashtags.
3. Adopt clear and transparent strategies for censoring, fact-checking, and debunking content that contains false information - Be aware that too much censorship and labelling may risk further polarisation.
4. Learn about who creates misinformation and conspiracy theories and their motivations - Future research could explore the underlying drivers of anti-science and anti-evidence sentiment.

"At a minimum, social media platforms must respond to false information, and public health advocates and health educators must also participate through preventive interventions, campaigns, and research."